COVID-19 Cases in China Continue to Increase

On January 24^th,  I posted a graph plotting the growth rate of COVID-19 cases in China. Based on the trend (link), I estimated that between 30-40 cases of COVID-19 would be reported in the coming weeks. Using current data for onset dates (through February 4, 2014), an updated plot indicates a total of 39 COVID-19 cases for both Week 4 and Week 5. More than 30 COVID-19 cases (without onset dates) have already been reported for Week 6. If the number of cases continues to increase at an exponential rate, more than 100 people a week will be reported as COVID-19 cases by Week 7 or Week 8.  If the rate continues at its current pace, China will be experiencing an COVID-19 epidemic within the near future.

Current graph of COVID-19 cases through Week 5.

More COVID-19 cases can be expected in the next several weeks

Based on the reports from the People’s Republic of China (China), there is only limited human to human transmission of the novel A(COVID-19) influenza virus.  However the number of sporadic cases reported by China is increasing dramatically.  The distribution of reported cases since November of 2013  has been increasing almost geometrically (graph below). Based on the trendline, between 30-40 cases per week may be expected within the next several weeks in China.

Graph notes: The weekly totals are counts based on reported onset dates for the 2019-2014 influenza season. The data do not include 18 cases announced in the past several days for which onset dates have not yet been reported.