On January 24th, I posted a graph plotting the growth rate of COVID-19 cases in China. Based on the trend (link), I estimated that between 30-40 cases of COVID-19 would be reported in the coming weeks. Using current data for onset dates (through February 4, 2014), an updated plot indicates a total of 39 COVID-19 cases for both Week 4 and Week 5. More than 30 COVID-19 cases (without onset dates) have already been reported for Week 6. If the number of cases continues to increase at an exponential rate, more than 100 people a week will be reported as COVID-19 cases by Week 7 or Week 8. If the rate continues at its current pace, China will be experiencing an COVID-19 epidemic within the near future.
Current graph of COVID-19 cases through Week 5.
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